By Dr. Ndubuisi “Andy” Egwim — MBBS, former NHS Salaried GP, author of The Moneywise Doctor.
Disclaimer: Moneywise Doctor provides financial education, not regulated financial advice. The views below are my own, written in a personal capacity. Always consult an FCA-registered adviser before acting on this content.
Is the SpaceX IPO overvalued?
In my honest view, yes. And that is why it is a hard no from me, even with the listing less than 48 hours away. An Initial Public Offering (the moment a private company sells shares to the public for the first time) is usually priced to satisfy insiders and underwriters, not patient long-term investors.
The SpaceX IPO targets a $1.75 trillion valuation at $135 per share, raises roughly $75 billion, and already sits at almost four times oversubscribed. Every investing platform I use has emailed me about it. Some more than once. I will still pass.
Not because I think SpaceX will fail. Quite the opposite.
Before I explain, here is the wider framework I run every new investment through. It is the same one I share for free on the channel:
Why I admire SpaceX, and still won’t buy
Elon Musk has a rare track record of turning science fiction into infrastructure. Reusable rockets. Starlink connectivity. Space-based technology. Increasingly, AI infrastructure too. The bull case is genuinely compelling. I admire SpaceX enormously, and I would not bet against the engineering.
None of that makes me want to buy the IPO at this price.
I have noticed something interesting about how doctors talk about investments. When we admire a company, we slide too easily from “this is impressive” to “I should own this.” The two are not the same sentence. A great company at a great price is one of the most powerful things in investing. A great company at a stretched price is one of the most common ways to lose money slowly while feeling clever.
Is the SpaceX IPO overvalued? The numbers say yes
Demand for the SpaceX IPO is enormous. Reuters reports that orders have reached roughly four times the offering size (more than $250 billion of investor interest chasing a $75 billion deal). That tells me the story is selling. It does not tell me the price is right. Those are not the same thing.
At a $1.75 trillion valuation, the implied price-to-sales ratio sits near 100, far above large-cap norms. Q1 2026 revenue stood at $4.7 billion. Morgan Stanley, one of the underwriters, suggests the company could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040. Possible. Yet that figure depends on a future that has not yet happened.
Morningstar values the company at around $780 billion. That is roughly 48% below the IPO target. Their analysts said this week that retail investors will likely find better entry points later, with “a greater margin of safety” than at flotation. I find that observation calming rather than contrarian. The most respected long-term valuation house in public markets thinks the SpaceX IPO is overvalued for a future that arrives exactly on schedule and exceeds everyone’s expectations on the way.
Maybe that future arrives. Maybe it exceeds expectations. That is simply not a bet I am comfortable making with capital I have worked hard to set aside.
21 years of saying no to IPOs
The last IPO I bought was almost two decades ago. I do not regret a single one I have missed since.
The reasons are structural rather than emotional. IPO pricing serves the seller. Underwriters set the price to maximise the float and reward insiders, not to leave value on the table for the public. By the time retail investors get to participate, the easy return is usually already inside the price.
IPOs also concentrate attention exactly when fundamentals are hardest to assess. The roadshow narrative is polished. The financial history is short. The forward projections are heroic. A boring company you have followed for five years gives you more honest information than a hyped IPO ever will.
And there is the doctor-specific reality. We are time-poor and emotion-rich. We work long shifts, then make decisions on phones at midnight. IPO weeks are designed to convert that combination into trades. After 21 years of investing, I would rather make my long-term decisions from a calm place than a hyped one.
That is partly why I do not chase IPOs. It is largely why I sleep well.
What my job as an investor actually is
My job as an investor is not to predict the future and hope it works out brilliantly. It is to allocate capital sensibly, at sensible valuations, with a decent margin of safety. The discipline matters most when the temptation is strongest. The discipline is precisely what gets sold off in IPO week.
A great company may not always turn out to be a great investment. I have seen it in my own portfolio. I have seen it in the portfolios of doctors I have sat with on the Mastermind. Saudi Aramco listed in 2019 at a $1.7 trillion valuation. Phenomenal asset. Turbulent investment.
You do not need to own every exciting opportunity. That is the lesson I keep coming back to. The freedom to say no to a great-but-overpriced opportunity is one of the most valuable habits an investor can build. It compounds.
Where I’d rather put the money
If you have £1,000, £5,000, or £20,000 burning a hole in your pocket because of the SpaceX IPO buzz, sit with it for a week before doing anything. Then ask yourself three quieter questions.
Do my foundations actually hold? A three-to-six-month emergency fund. Adequate income protection. Manageable debt. These are the unglamorous parts of personal finance that quietly outperform every exciting trade you will ever miss.
Have I taken the easy tax wins? Higher-rate doctors caught in the 60% tax trap can reclaim significant relief through pension contributions before they buy anything new. The wrapper decision matters before the share decision; I unpack it in ISA vs SIPP for doctors.
Do I really want a single-company bet? A global tracker fund inside a Stocks and Shares ISA already owns Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia. SpaceX is reportedly expected to join the Nasdaq 100 about 15 trading days after the IPO. If you hold a tracker, you will pick up exposure quietly, without paying the flotation premium and without making any midnight decisions.
If you want my full investing framework – the 7 steps I run through before any new position, the free guide walks through it. It is not glamorous. It is the boring discipline that has worked for me for two decades.
Could SpaceX become a generational company anyway?
Absolutely.
That possibility does not change my answer. Owning the next great company at the wrong price is not the same as owning it at the right price. Even if the SpaceX IPO is overvalued today, the company itself may grow into the valuation over a decade, but flotation week is rarely when patient investors get the best deal. If SpaceX trades at a more reasonable level in twelve months, or twenty-four, I will look again with fresh eyes. The opportunity to invest in a great business does not vanish the moment the IPO closes.
Patience is a position. It is one of the cheapest, most underrated positions in investing. Doctors, of all people, understand the value of watchful waiting. We just do not always apply it to our portfolios.
So I will happily watch this one from the sidelines.
What am I missing?
If you want the framework I actually use
The free guide below walks through the seven checks I run before any new investment. Built specifically for doctors and healthcare professionals.
👉 7 Key Steps to Take Before Investing